So, the latest-and-greatest panic rumor is that Amazon is going to create a “Netflix for books,” where any Amazon Prime member can download (presumably) any ebook they want for nothing more than the cost of their Prime membership.
People on the net–particularly paranoid authors and lugubrious tech writers–have been speculating about something like this for a while now, and now, according to an article in Wired, Amazon’s actually putting out feelers to see if they can make it work.
Authors, needless to say, are in a lather, because they see the potential that a) their miniscule royalty share from publishers decreasing as more people effectively use the Amazon equivalent of a library instead of paying for books, and b) Amazon might use the sea change as an opportunity to give their e-publishers a big royalty cut (which has been the paranoid topic du jour ever since they bumped it from 35 to 70 percent).
Me? I think it’s bullshit, for several reasons:
First: This is a bit of a “duh” issue, but Amazon can’t actually offer any books that publishers (including indies) give them permission to, excepting books in the public domain. Do you think it’s terribly likely that publishers, many of whom are in the midst of trying to negotiate a HUGE industry-wide business model shift, are going to take kindly to the notion of licensing content on a basket basis for a low price?
Second: If Amazon did the Netflix for books thing, the big loser will be the bestsellers. I would be quite surprised if their contracts had proactively authorized the publishers to sublicense their work in this fashion (very few of the midlist contracts I’ve seen can be read this way, even by a highly motivated lawyer). So, if the publishers did jump at this, they’d be awash in lawsuits from the very authors that generate the bulk of their money.
Third: So let’s say Amazon can’t make their Netflix-for-books idea work without coopting their stable of Indies. They ammend the distibution agreement to give them the right to put books in the Prime store without further consent. If they did this, and then deployed it aggressively, the advantage of listing with Amazon pretty much evaporates for most of us–and all we have to do is take our books down, except perhaps for those we want to use as loss-leaders. There are a lot of other retailers, and the ones we do leave up can link to sites where our books can be purchased. At that point, the situation is the same as putting up the first book in a series for free and then including affiliate links at the end. And Amazon loses, because the purchasing business shifts to other sites. Which brings me to…
Fourth: Amazon is a retailer. Short term, they might seriously boost sales of the Kindle. Long term, though, they’ll make less money with subscription models if they managed to shift the bulk of their customer base over to them. From their point of view, this is about creating a stable baseline yearly income in the form of subscriptions. However, the people most likely to sign up for Prime are those who buy a LOT at Amazon–these are exactly the people who, if given the “free books with membership” option, are going to not buy as many books, and the bottom line at Amazon will hurt because of it. Amazon’s most optimal strategy will be to offer SOME books through Prime (for example, first books in a series) while keeping the bulk of their likely-to-sell-dependably stock in the normal retail store only.
Fifth: Despite what you’re hearing from some other writers who are currently really worked up about this, there are not only six publishing houses. There are over 1900, not including upstart collective labels that publish a bunch of indies. Amazon can not effectively make every, or even most, books available this way even if they wanted to. And the biggest labels are already very worried about Amazon’s current dominance of the retail space.
Verdict:
If Amazon pursues this model, it’ll be in a limited fashion. It might include magazines, first novels-in-series, public domain works, and the occasional book that an author or publisher is willing to license out specifically for the Prime distribution model. But it ain’t gonna include everything–nowhere near. And it’s not going to put us all out of business, or reduce the profession to ashes dominated only by hobbyists.
Katherine Hepburn used to say “Life is a banquet and most poor bastards are starving to death.” That’s the situation authors are in right now. We’re in the most amazing era (from an author’s POV) since the pulp era, and the fundamental economic drivers pushing it are creating FAR more (not less) opportunity for writers to make good livings. And yet, writers across the net are kvetching about falling advances, reduction of opportunity, and paranoid ideations of their profession evaporating.
But this is a business, and businesses change. You can’t stop change by complaining about it, you can only learn to roll with it. And when the changes are breaking ninety percent in your favor, the proper reaction is to seize the moment, not to sit around bemoaning the fact that things change.
In other words, relax. The doomsayer scenario isn’t going to happen. You can go back to writing now.
— — —
If you find this post useful or thought provoking, please consider donating to the tip jar at the top right of this site, or buying a copy of any of the books you’ll find listed in the right sidebar. Writing is how I make my living–I enjoy it and would like to keep it up!
jdsawyer
After a childhood in academia, J. Daniel Sawyer declared his independence by dropping out of high school and setting off on a series of adventures in the bowels of the film industry, the venture capital culture of silicon valley, surfing safaris, bohemians, burners, historians, theologians, adventurers, climbers, drug dealers, gangbangers, and inventors before his past finally caught up to him.
Trapped in a world bookended by one wall falling in Berlin and other walls going up around suburbia and along national borders throughout the world, he rediscovered his deep love of history and, with it, and obsession with predicting the future as it grew aggressively out of the past.
To date, this obsession has yielded over thirty books and innumerable short stories, the occasional short film, nearly a dozen podcasts stretching over a decade and a half, and a career creating novels and audiobooks exploring the world through the lens of his own peculiar madness, in the depths of his own private forest in a rural exile, where he uses the quiet to write, walk on the beach, and manage a production company that brings innovative stories to the ears of audiences across the world.
For news and free stories, sign up for his occasional newsletter. Or find his contact info, podcasts, and more on his home page at http://www.jdsawyer.net
As an indie creator, I’m far from “in a lather” about the possibility of Amazon folding a lending system into their Amazon Prime program.
I don’t have the numbers, but I’m guessing that there’s not a whole lot of overlap between folks who mostly buy Kindle e-books and people who subscribe to Prime (why pay an annual fee for free shipping when most of your commerce is electronic?)
So: if I can get a piece of the Amazon Prime customer pie on top of my monthly Kindle royalties, fantastic. It’s another stream of income for my content.
Very good point — now I’m kicking myself that I didn’t think of that and point it out in the post. Thanks much for chiming in!
jdsawyer
There is another thing to consider, and that is more exposure for your content. It is not just about web searches either, but about allowing readers to find books that they might find interesting. Assuming of course, that the online retailer allows a healthy amount of fields when the product is listed. The lending option gives the consumer immediate gratification for folks that may only read the text once or twice, whilst still offering some income for the author.
{"id":null,"mode":"button","open_style":"in_place","currency_code":"USD","currency_symbol":"$","currency_type":"decimal","blank_flag_url":"http:\/\/jdsawyer.net\/wp-content\/plugins\/tip-jar-wp\/\/assets\/images\/flags\/blank.gif","flag_sprite_url":"http:\/\/jdsawyer.net\/wp-content\/plugins\/tip-jar-wp\/\/assets\/images\/flags\/flags.png","default_amount":500,"top_media_type":"none","featured_image_url":false,"featured_embed":"","header_media":null,"file_download_attachment_data":null,"recurring_options_enabled":true,"recurring_options":{"never":{"selected":true,"after_output":"One time only"},"weekly":{"selected":false,"after_output":"Every week"},"monthly":{"selected":false,"after_output":"Every month"},"yearly":{"selected":false,"after_output":"Every year"}},"strings":{"current_user_email":"","current_user_name":"","link_text":"Leave a tip","complete_payment_button_error_text":"Check info and try again","payment_verb":"Tip","payment_request_label":"","form_has_an_error":"Please check and fix the errors above","general_server_error":"Something isn't working right at the moment. Please try again.","form_title":"Tip Jar","form_subtitle":"Want me to keep writing?","currency_search_text":"Country or Currency here","other_payment_option":"Other payment option","manage_payments_button_text":"Manage your payments","thank_you_message":"Thank you for being a supporter!","payment_confirmation_title":"","receipt_title":"Your Receipt","print_receipt":"Print Receipt","email_receipt":"Email Receipt","email_receipt_sending":"Sending receipt...","email_receipt_success":"Email receipt successfully sent","email_receipt_failed":"Email receipt failed to send. Please try again.","receipt_payee":"Paid to","receipt_statement_descriptor":"This will show up on your statement as","receipt_date":"Date","receipt_transaction_id":"Transaction ID","receipt_transaction_amount":"Amount","refund_payer":"Refund from","login":"Log in to manage your payments","manage_payments":"Manage Payments","transactions_title":"Your Transactions","transaction_title":"Transaction Receipt","transaction_period":"Plan Period","arrangements_title":"Your Plans","arrangement_title":"Manage Plan","arrangement_details":"Plan Details","arrangement_id_title":"Plan ID","arrangement_payment_method_title":"Payment Method","arrangement_amount_title":"Plan Amount","arrangement_renewal_title":"Next renewal date","arrangement_action_cancel":"Cancel Plan","arrangement_action_cant_cancel":"Cancelling is currently not available.","arrangement_action_cancel_double":"Are you sure you'd like to cancel?","arrangement_cancelling":"Cancelling Plan...","arrangement_cancelled":"Plan Cancelled","arrangement_failed_to_cancel":"Failed to cancel plan","back_to_plans":"\u2190 Back to Plans","update_payment_method_verb":"Update","sca_auth_description":"Your have a pending renewal payment which requires authorization.","sca_auth_verb":"Authorize renewal payment","sca_authing_verb":"Authorizing payment","sca_authed_verb":"Payment successfully authorized!","sca_auth_failed":"Unable to authorize! Please try again.","login_button_text":"Log in","login_form_has_an_error":"Please check and fix the errors above","uppercase_search":"Search","lowercase_search":"search","uppercase_page":"Page","lowercase_page":"page","uppercase_items":"Items","lowercase_items":"items","uppercase_per":"Per","lowercase_per":"per","uppercase_of":"Of","lowercase_of":"of","back":"Back to plans","zip_code_placeholder":"Zip\/Postal Code","download_file_button_text":"Download File","input_field_instructions":{"tip_amount":{"placeholder_text":"How much would you like to tip?","initial":{"instruction_type":"normal","instruction_message":"How much would you like to tip? Choose any currency."},"empty":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"How much would you like to tip? Choose any currency."},"invalid_curency":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"Please choose a valid currency."}},"recurring":{"placeholder_text":"Recurring","initial":{"instruction_type":"normal","instruction_message":"How often would you like to give this?"},"success":{"instruction_type":"success","instruction_message":"How often would you like to give this?"},"empty":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"How often would you like to give this?"}},"name":{"placeholder_text":"Name on Credit Card","initial":{"instruction_type":"normal","instruction_message":"Enter the name on your card."},"success":{"instruction_type":"success","instruction_message":"Enter the name on your card."},"empty":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"Please enter the name on your card."}},"privacy_policy":{"terms_title":"Terms and conditions","terms_body":"","terms_show_text":"View Terms","terms_hide_text":"Hide Terms","initial":{"instruction_type":"normal","instruction_message":"I agree to the terms."},"unchecked":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"Please agree to the terms."},"checked":{"instruction_type":"success","instruction_message":"I agree to the terms."}},"email":{"placeholder_text":"Your email address","initial":{"instruction_type":"normal","instruction_message":"Enter your email address"},"success":{"instruction_type":"success","instruction_message":"Enter your email address"},"blank":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"Enter your email address"},"not_an_email_address":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"Make sure you have entered a valid email address"}},"note_with_tip":{"placeholder_text":"Your note here...","initial":{"instruction_type":"normal","instruction_message":"Attach a note to your tip (optional)"},"empty":{"instruction_type":"normal","instruction_message":"Attach a note to your tip (optional)"},"not_empty_initial":{"instruction_type":"normal","instruction_message":"Attach a note to your tip (optional)"},"saving":{"instruction_type":"normal","instruction_message":"Saving note..."},"success":{"instruction_type":"success","instruction_message":"Note successfully saved!"},"error":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"Unable to save note note at this time. Please try again."}},"email_for_login_code":{"placeholder_text":"Your email address","initial":{"instruction_type":"normal","instruction_message":"Enter your email to log in."},"success":{"instruction_type":"success","instruction_message":"Enter your email to log in."},"blank":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"Enter your email to log in."},"empty":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"Enter your email to log in."}},"login_code":{"initial":{"instruction_type":"normal","instruction_message":"Check your email and enter the login code."},"success":{"instruction_type":"success","instruction_message":"Check your email and enter the login code."},"blank":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"Check your email and enter the login code."},"empty":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"Check your email and enter the login code."}},"stripe_all_in_one":{"initial":{"instruction_type":"normal","instruction_message":"Enter your credit card details here."},"empty":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"Enter your credit card details here."},"success":{"instruction_type":"normal","instruction_message":"Enter your credit card details here."},"invalid_number":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"The card number is not a valid credit card number."},"invalid_expiry_month":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"The card's expiration month is invalid."},"invalid_expiry_year":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"The card's expiration year is invalid."},"invalid_cvc":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"The card's security code is invalid."},"incorrect_number":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"The card number is incorrect."},"incomplete_number":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"The card number is incomplete."},"incomplete_cvc":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"The card's security code is incomplete."},"incomplete_expiry":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"The card's expiration date is incomplete."},"incomplete_zip":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"The card's zip code is incomplete."},"expired_card":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"The card has expired."},"incorrect_cvc":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"The card's security code is incorrect."},"incorrect_zip":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"The card's zip code failed validation."},"invalid_expiry_year_past":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"The card's expiration year is in the past"},"card_declined":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"The card was declined."},"missing":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"There is no card on a customer that is being charged."},"processing_error":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"An error occurred while processing the card."},"invalid_request_error":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"Unable to process this payment, please try again or use alternative method."},"invalid_sofort_country":{"instruction_type":"error","instruction_message":"The billing country is not accepted by SOFORT. Please try another country."}}}},"fetched_oembed_html":false}
As an indie creator, I’m far from “in a lather” about the possibility of Amazon folding a lending system into their Amazon Prime program.
I don’t have the numbers, but I’m guessing that there’s not a whole lot of overlap between folks who mostly buy Kindle e-books and people who subscribe to Prime (why pay an annual fee for free shipping when most of your commerce is electronic?)
So: if I can get a piece of the Amazon Prime customer pie on top of my monthly Kindle royalties, fantastic. It’s another stream of income for my content.
Very good point — now I’m kicking myself that I didn’t think of that and point it out in the post. Thanks much for chiming in!
There is another thing to consider, and that is more exposure for your content. It is not just about web searches either, but about allowing readers to find books that they might find interesting. Assuming of course, that the online retailer allows a healthy amount of fields when the product is listed. The lending option gives the consumer immediate gratification for folks that may only read the text once or twice, whilst still offering some income for the author.
Pingback: The Week in Writing: 12th–18th September, 2011 » markaeology